Potential effects of climatic change on hydrological basins of Bacuranao and Guanabo rivers: Prospective approach

Abstract

Scenario analysis of the effects of climatic changes over 13 different environmental situations that can potentially generate dysfunctions, problems or impacts in hydrological basins highly modified by human activities were developed using prospective methods. Twenty-four significant socioeconomic and governmental drivers were identified and four different climatic contexts considered.  Of these drivers, The Updating of the Cuban economic model, Political stability and planning and Inconsistencies and low economical performance were the most important. The expert panel agreed that within any climatic context or whichever the socioeconomic and governmental driver’s composition might be, due to their relative importance, the key environmental situations were Idle Areas, Pollution of Rivers and Water Bodies, and Dumping and micro dumping fields.  Interrelations and synergies between environmental situations are assumed to diminish    when the two extreme scenarios are compared:  that with highest possibilities of environmental management and the real or present one. According to this comparison only four situations, Pollution of rivers and water bodies, Area occupied by alien species, Pests and diseases and Soil agroproductivity will maintain a significant interdependence, a fact that should be taken into account for the purpose of the actions to be taken. It has been considered also that any variation of the climatic regime in relation to the present one will affect all the environmental situations evaluated, but in particular Pollution of rivers and water bodies, Autochthonous forest coverture and Soil agroproductivity showed a well-defined statistical association to the rainfall pattern. Guidelines are offered for the environmental management of this type of basins in agreement with the expected alternatives of climatic change